Stratfor Releases Q4 Forecast Points To Critical Period In US Presidency



Private intelligence firm Strategic Forecasting, Inc. (Stratfor) has released its forecast for the fourth quarter. Stratfor's8217;s Quarterly Forecast is designed for decision-makers in the private sector and government, and evaluates the most relevant geopolitical, economic, and security issues around the world that will shape events over the next three months and beyond. According to Stratfor, Q4 hinges on the state of the U.S. presidency, discussing the potential consequences of recent Bush administration set-backs, whether real or perceived.

The Q4 Forecast gages the potential impact of recent events, such as the response to Hurricane Katrina, a Texas grand jury indictment of House Minority leader, and difficulties surrounding the war and Iraq. These situations have begun to erode the president's8217;s approval ratings, which currently sit at about 40 percent and, according to Stratfor, place him in the position of losing the political center.

Against the backdrop of multiplying challenges for the Bush administration, the report considers how these factors could weaken the influence the president has during a critical international period. As the Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds maneuver for position to shape the new Iraq, their willingness to negotiate depends largely on their perception of the political power of the president. Stratfor offers that should the players in the Iraqi struggle increase their level of violence, the result could further raise doubts about the president's8217;s power.

The forecast also examines various global powers and their geopolitical goals, goals that could come closer to attainment with a weakened president. Among the groups vying for opportunities are the Russians, who are seeking to reverse recent U.S. encroachments, the Saudis, who could re-consider their post-9/11 stance, and the Iranians, who could attempt to further their influence on the Iraqi Shia. While the odds still favor the president in retaining support, Stratfor's8217;s forecast explores the relationship between the U.S. presidency and global forces in the fourth quarter.

Stratfor is the world'ss largest private intelligence firm providing corporations, governments, and individuals with intelligence and analysis to anticipate the political, economic, and security issues vital to their interests. Armed with powerful intelligence-gathering capabilities and working in close collaboration with Stratfor'ss experienced team of professionals, our clients are better able to protect their assets, diminish risk, and increase opportunities to compete in the global market.


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Stratfor Releases Q4 Forecast Points To Critical Period In US Presidency