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TFI Paper Technology Forecasting for Telecommunications Now Available

Anyone whose future depends on technology markets will find technology forecasting very useful both in gaining insight and understanding, as well as in decision making. An article entitled "Technology Forecasting for Telecommunications," written by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, Technology Futures, Inc. [TFI]) and Ray L. Hodges (Senior Consultant, TFI), appears in the latest volume of the prestigious international telecommunications journal "Telektronikk." It addresses a number of past and current TFI quantitative forecasts to give an idea about the fundamentals of forecasting, outlines some successes of telecom forecasting, and offers a look at what's ahead. The article can be found in its entirety at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/w/pdf/telektronikk_peer.pdf.



Technology forecasting in telecommunications has been a success story. This may seem like a bold statement given the recent debacle in the telecom industry, caused, in part, by some extremely poor forecasts. However, almost all of the problems experienced by the industry were forecastable and indeed forecasted. The best forecasts were supported by quality modeling and analysis. Among these were forecasts produced by TFI.



The successes TFI has had over the last 20 years are many and include good forecasts in such telecom areas as:



--Digital switching

--Digital transmission

--Fiber transport

--SONET/SDH adoption

--Optical data rates

--Cellular adoption

--Digital cellular substitution

--Wireless/wireline competition

--Internet demand

--Broadband access (e.g., DSL and cable modems)

--Bandwidth demand

--DTV/HDTV



Active forecasting areas where technology forecasting is crucial, but where it is still too early to gauge success, include:



--VDSL

--PONs

--VoIP

--IP PBXs

--3G wireless

--Wireless LANs

--Future increases in access bandwidth



If you would like to know about how forecasting is used to outperform industry wisdom and the guesses that often pass for market forecasts, please check out the article at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/w/pdf/telektronikk_peer.pdf. Information on other TFI forecasting activities can be found on our White Paper, Articles, and Complimentary Articles page at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/white.html and our Telecom Report Press Releases page at http://www.tfi.com/pressroom/market.html.



Dr. Vanston, Mr. Hodges, and the other experienced professionals at TFI have been monitoring, analyzing, and forecasting technology and telecom technologies, trends, and services since 1978. If you or a member of your staff needs a knowledgeable opinion or insights into technology and telecom trends, we at TFI are always happy to speak with you.



Author Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D., is an internationally- recognized authority in the use of technology forecasting in the telecom industry. His research reports and forecasts are used and referenced extensively worldwide. The September 21, 1998 issue of "The Wall Street Journal" featured an in-depth interview entitled "Consultant's Call: Lawrence Vanston Makes Some Pretty Bold Predictions for the Future of Telecommunications. He Has Been Right Before." Notably, the predictions therein have likewise come true. His full bio is available at http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/vanstonl.html.



Co-author Ray L. Hodges brings over 30 years of telecom expertise and experience to his work at TFI, including 25 years with GTE Telephone Operations. His interests are focused on emerging wireless technologies and markets and their impacts on the public telecom network. Mr. Hodges' views and the results of his research have been cited by many telecom publications. His full bio can be found at http://www.tfi.com/staff/bios/hodges.html .



For 27 years, TFI has helped organizations plan for the future by offering outstanding technology forecasting, strategic planning, trend analysis, and strategic market research services in high-technology and telecom technologies. Drawing on proven, quantifiable forecasting methods and strategic applications, we combine the vision of the futurist with the down-to-earth judgment of the technologist. Let TFI be "Your Bridge to the Future."



PRESS CONTACT: Please contact Ms. Carrie Vanston by telephone at (800) TEK-FUTR, (512) 258-8898, or by email with questions or comments or to arrange an interview with Dr. Vanston, Mr. Hodges, or other experts at TFI. We are always happy to comment on the subjects of technology and telecom trends. We welcome you to visit our website at http://www.tfi.com and our "Press Room" at http://www.tfi.com/pressroom/index.html.



Technology Futures, Inc.

13740 Research Boulevard, Building C

Austin, TX 78750

(800) 835-3887 or (512) 258-8898

Fax: (512) 258-0087

www.tfi.com

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