60 of Western European Residential Voice Spend to Be On Mobile and VoIP by 2010 Says Analysys



June 24, 2005 -- By 2010, mobile and voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services will account for more than 60% of residential voice spend in Western Europe and up to a quarter of households will have abandoned plain old telephony services (POTS), according to a new report, Fixed-Mobile Substitution and VoIP: forecasts for the battle for mass-market voice, published by Analysys, the global advisers on telecoms, IT and media (http://research.analysys.com).

"The mass market for voice services in Western Europe is being transformed by the substitution of mobile and new VoIP services for traditional fixed voice services ," says Katrina Bond, lead author of the report. "We expect that in five years 45% of voice minutes will be made from a mobile or VoIP connection, compared to 28% in 2004." According to the report, POTS services will account for just 39% of declining spend on residential voice services by 2010.

The report reveals that there has already been substantial fixed-mobile substitution in Western Europe - mobile networks accounted for 51% of voice spend in 2004 - and predicts that mobile voice services will account for 35% of voice minutes and 57% of voice spend in 2010. Meanwhile, POTS will also face competition from retail VoIP services.

"The usage of broadband connections for VoIP is at a nascent stage in Western Europe currently, but the scene will change dramatically over the next five years," says Bond. "In 2010, it is estimated that VoIP could account for 9.6% of voice minutes, but only around 3.6% of voice spend because of its low price compared with POTS services." The report points out that consumers' spend on voice services will decline as a percentage of disposable income because falling prices for all voice services will enable spend to be transferred to other services or uses of time.

Fixed-Mobile Substitution and VoIP: forecasts for the battle for mass-market voice provides detailed forecasts of connections, minutes and spend for the residential voice market in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK and for Western Europe as a whole. By taking a unified view of the voice market, the report is able to provide new insight into how the effects of fixed-mobile substitution and VoIP will impact different countries.

Fixed-Mobile Substitution and VoIP: forecasts for the battle for mass-market voice is available to purchase online at http://research.analysys.com priced GBP1900. For more information, telephone Analysys on +44 (0)1223 460600 or email e-mail protected from spam bots.

About Analysys (www.analysys.com)
Analysys provides strategy and management consultancy, information services and start-up support throughout the telecommunications, IT and media sector. Our firm grasp of market dynamics, our distinctive combination of creativity and rigour, and our renowned objectivity enable us to consistently exceed the high levels of quality and innovation that our clients expect. We have over 130 staff in offices in Cambridge, Edinburgh, London, Madrid, Milan, Paris and Washington DC, and work with associates in Auckland, Melbourne and Vancouver.

Recent reports include:
* The Telco Product Portfolio beyond 2010 (May 2005)
* The Telco Organisational Structure beyond 2010 (April 2005)
* The Western European Mobile Market: trends and forecasts 2005-2010 (April 2005)
* Product and Service Opportunities from Short-range Wireless Technologies (March 2005)
* The Western European Mobile Market: trends and forecasts 2005-2010 (March 2005)
* The Telco Organisational Structure beyond 2010 (March 2005)
* Wireless over VoIP: technical and commercial prospects (February 2005)
* Billing for Mobility: strategies for convergent charging (February 2005)
* The World's Top Ten Wireless Services (January 2005)
* Retaining Customers and Minimising Churn: strategies for mobile markets (December 2004)
* The Business Case for Carrier Migration to VoIP (December 2004)
* Pushing Beyond the Limits of 3G with HSDPA and Other Enhancements (December 2004)
* The Role and Impact of WiMAX and Proprietary BWA (November 2004)
* Making a Success of the Mobile Content Value Chain (November 2004)
* Viable Business Models Point to Big Opportunities for Public WLAN (October 2004)
* Emerging Business Models in Voice: the impact of Skype and other private VoIP applications (September 2004)
* TV and Video Services on a Mobile Phone: the killer application for 3G (September 2004)
* Delivering High-speed Mobile Internet/Intranet Services: the role for 3G and public WLAN (August 2004)
* The Business Case for Broadband Entertainment (July 2004)
* Western European Fixed Telecoms Markets: forecasts 2004-2009 (July 2004)
* Spectrum Trading and Liberalisation: new threats and opportunities for telecoms business models (June 2004)
* 3G Launch Strategies: critical decisions on services and technology (June 2004)
* The Road to Fixed-Mobile Substitution Starts with 3G (April 2004)
* VoIP in the US Market: services, business models and regulation (March 2004)

Media contact (for author photography, executive summaries and interviews)
Louise Nunn
Analysys
Tel: +44 (0)1223 460600
Email: e-mail protected from spam bots





60 of Western European Residential Voice Spend to Be On Mobile and VoIP by 2010 Says Analysys